MONTEREY COUNTY — Monterey County supervisors have declared a local emergency ahead of the expected El Niño winter, approving funding for emergency readiness and flood-warning equipment as county officials prepare for potential flooding, landslides and other storm-related hazards.
The Board of Supervisors approved the emergency proclamation Oct. 13 after hearing presentations from the National Weather Service and county departments on the winter outlook and preparations for the coming months.
The board report cited National Weather Service projections of a 98% chance of a very strong El Niño this winter and a 75% chance of a historic event exceeding the strength of previous El Niños dating to 1950. El Niño can increase the likelihood of wet conditions in California, but it does not guarantee a particularly rainy winter.
The declaration directs county departments to carry out needed preparations and assessments. Supervisors also approved about $669,000 for emergency readiness, flood-warning system repairs and upgrades, and sandbar management at Carmel River Lagoon. The funding includes $297,104 to replenish the Emergency Operations Center budget, $107,000 for the Water Resources Agency’s ALERT Flood Warning System and $265,000 for Carmel River Lagoon sandbar management.
County officials also warned that burn scars from the Timber and Plaskett fires along the Big Sur coast could increase the risk of debris flows, putting Highway 1 and other critical infrastructure at risk.
Residents will have another opportunity to learn about storm preparations during countywide winter storm preparedness meetings at noon and 5:30 p.m. on Wednesday, Oct. 21. The virtual meetings will feature local agencies, emergency responders, utilities, weather experts and community partners.
Both meetings will be streamed on the county’s YouTube channel (youtube.com/MontereyCountyTV) and Facebook page (facebook.com/MontereyCoInfo).
In addition, the county has launched two online resources: the County Storm Preparedness Hub (coMRY.us/stormpreparedness), which outlines county preparations, and the County Storm Resources Center (coMRY.us/stormresources), which provides safety checklists, sandbag location maps, evacuation information and links to emergency alerts.
“The County of Monterey is taking proactive steps in educating our residents and diligently preparing for this winter’s storm season,” said Nick Pasculli, county communications bureau chief, in a media advisory Sept. 23. “By launching these comprehensive web pages in direct coordination with multiple County Departments, we are transforming awareness into collective strength. Our goal is to ensure every single resident has the knowledge, tools and confidence to safeguard their homes and families.”
Preparing for winter storms
At last week’s board meeting, Matt Mahle, a lead meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told supervisors that El Niño is expected to strengthen through the winter, with the pattern forecast to peak between November and January.
Strong El Niño conditions can shift the jet stream south, increasing the likelihood of wetter-than-normal conditions in central and Southern California. However, past seasons show that rainfall can vary considerably. The 1997-98 winter brought heavy rainfall and widespread flooding, while the 2015-16 El Niño season produced substantially less rain in the area.
“We are very confident that we are going to have a wetter than normal winter. How much? We don’t truly know,” Mahle told supervisors.
El Niño is a climate pattern involving warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, not an individual storm. Other atmospheric conditions also influence California’s weather.
Among the hazards county officials are preparing for are river and coastal flooding, high surf, strong winds, downed trees, power outages, landslides and debris flows.
“All it takes is one storm, regardless of El Niño,” said Mahle, noting that a single storm can cause serious damage even during an otherwise average winter.
Kelsey Scanlon, the county’s director of emergency management, said the county prepares year-round for winter storms and has used lessons from the damaging storms of 2023 to identify ways to improve its response.
According to Scanlon, preparations include acquiring flood-fighting equipment, improving communications with residents and coordinating emergency readiness across county departments and partner agencies. The county has acquired mobile flood barriers and message boards with the help of a state grant.
Public Works crews have been clearing drainage systems and culverts and making repairs at locations throughout the county in preparation for the rainy season.
Monterey County Water Resources Agency also is preparing its reservoirs and flood-control systems. As of the Oct. 13 presentation, San Antonio Reservoir was at about 46% capacity, with room for approximately 180,000 acre-feet of additional winter runoff. Nacimiento Reservoir was at about 34% capacity, with room for approximately 250,000 acre-feet.
Water Resources Agency General Manager Ara Azhderian described a flood inundation mapping tool developed since the 2023 storms that can model potential flooding along the Salinas River.
“This will improve our ability to give advance warning in areas that could be impacted,” Azhderian said.
The agency is also using forecast-informed reservoir operations tools to help guide decisions about reservoir levels as storms approach. The county’s ALERT Flood Warning System, which monitors hydrologic conditions, is among the systems slated for repairs and upgrades ahead of winter. Three monitoring sites were damaged by the Timber and Plaskett fires, according to the board report.
South County town halls planned
The county is planning community meetings to provide residents with information about local flood risks and storm preparedness.
An emergency preparedness town hall took place Monday night at Soledad Community Center, after press deadlines. Other town halls focusing on the Salinas River for Districts 3 and 5 are scheduled next month in South Monterey County.
The King City meeting is set for Nov. 2 from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m., tentatively located at the Salinas Valley Fairgrounds. A second meeting is scheduled for Nov. 9 from 5:30 to 7:30 p.m. in Chualar, with its exact location still to be determined.
Residents can review the county’s online preparedness websites, including information about sandbag locations and other storm resources, download the Monterey County UConnect app and sign up for emergency alerts to receive updates if conditions deteriorate.
